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Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe

Sports→TennisSettlement: Lorenzo MusettiLiquidity: $207.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $652.8KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
100.0¢
Lorenzo Musetti payout
0.0¢
Frances Tiafoe payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:234 trades$237.9K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Musetti · $4.2K net·12 wallets·$66.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLorenzo Musetti$6.8K@ 68¢·jtwyslljy

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Lorenzo Musetti. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Lorenzo Musetti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $6.4K gross
TSFSYD2 linked markets · $2.9K gross
0xe824…28ab2 linked markets · $20 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 76.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 75.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Frances Tiafoe DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $2.4K → $1.2K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Musetti; negative values favor Frances Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrances Tiafoe · $19.0K
6hLorenzo Musetti · $38.9K
24hLorenzo Musetti · $32.2K

Lorenzo Musetti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Musetti price. Frances Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Musetti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.55¢▲ above by 30.4pp
VWAP 7d69.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Musetti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$44.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$23
75¢
$61.5K
70¢
$25.0K
65¢
$7.9K
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$25.1K
50¢
$43.8K
45¢
$19.9K
40¢
$14.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesLorenzo Musetti$58.2K
BUY VWAP 67.81¢·33 fills
dmoralezLorenzo Musetti$11.8K
BUY VWAP 71.26¢·9 fills
jtwyslljyLorenzo Musetti$11.2K
BUY VWAP 62.22¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.