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Lisbon: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Elmer Moeller

● quote 669 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $101.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $150.0KEvent: Lisbon: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Elmer Moeller

Indicative prices · 669 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Svyatoslav Gulin
0.05¢
Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:54 trades$52.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 956 min agoofficial metadata 667 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Svyatoslav Gulin · $5.1K net·9 wallets·$10.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElmer Moeller$14.8K@ 63¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$52.6K

9 verified profitable wallets: Svyatoslav Gulin · $5.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 669 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 956 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 667 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 11:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Svyatoslav Gulin and Elmer Moeller in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Svyatoslav Gulin' if Svyatoslav Gulin advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Svyatoslav Gulin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Elmer Moeller DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $7.9K → $1.7K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Svyatoslav Gulin; negative values favor Elmer Moeller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSvyatoslav Gulin · $0
6hSvyatoslav Gulin · $0
24hElmer Moeller · $4.8K

Svyatoslav Gulin price VWAP

Volume-weighted Svyatoslav Gulin price. Elmer Moeller fills are converted to the complementary Svyatoslav Gulin probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h41.32¢▲ above by 58.6pp
VWAP 7d41.32¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Svyatoslav Gulin price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$277
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.2K
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$11.3K
45¢
$3.8K
40¢
$7.3K
35¢
$18.5K
30¢
$3.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$64
15¢
$373
10¢
$4.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElmer Moeller$11.2K@ 47.81¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$14.8K@ 63.19¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LuzzzerElmer Moeller$14.8K
BUY VWAP 63.19¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.