PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $88.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $154.4KEvent: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
1.3¢
YES
98.7¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution95Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 209 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1
tracked
$1

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 209 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus independent-wallet confirmation.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$1
24h+$1

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.3¢
VWAP 24h0.7¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d0.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3.8¢$143.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0.9¢$116.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
40.9¢$115.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1.1¢$105.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1.6¢$92.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity