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Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

● quote 31s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $142.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $157.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

Indicative prices · 31s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

29.5¢
Team Falcons
70.5¢
Natus Vincere
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:57 trades$103.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 66%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 35s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $20.3K net·2 wallets·$20.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$51.1K@ 71¢·Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $28.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$28.3K
6h
−$78.1K
tracked
$103.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $20.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 4 match between Natus Vincere and Team Falcons in the IEM Beijing Group A, initially scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl2 linked markets · $293.8K gross
0xc9bf…81c02 linked markets · $52.8K gross
meoooow2 linked markets · $2.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 71.0¢55m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 71.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Falcons; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $28.3K
6hNatus Vincere · $78.1K
24hNatus Vincere · $100.8K

Team Falcons price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Falcons price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Team Falcons probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h29.04¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d29.04¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Falcons price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$2.6K
25¢
← now
$101.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$28.4K@ 71.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$51.1K@ 70.97¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
45.5¢$728.2Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
47.0¢$2.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner
48.5¢$1.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner
42.5¢$413priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
49.5¢$252priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
39.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
33.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
49.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlNatus Vincere$79.5K
BUY VWAP 70.98¢·2 fills
0xc9bf…81c0Natus Vincere$19.2K
BUY VWAP 71.00¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.