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Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $441.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $728.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

45.5¢
Natus Vincere
54.5¢
Team Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection25Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:162 trades$368.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Falcons · $20.6K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$87.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$112.5K@ 45¢·Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $92.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$92.4K
6h
+$150.3K
tracked
$368.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Team Falcons · $20.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 54

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Team Falcons.

•This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 4 match between Natus Vincere and Team Falcons in the IEM Beijing Group A, initially scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 2, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl2 linked markets · $293.8K gross
0xc9bf…81c02 linked markets · $52.8K gross
meoooow2 linked markets · $2.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 45.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Natus Vincere@ 45.0¢15m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 45.0¢41m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 44.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor Team Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $92.4K
6hNatus Vincere · $150.3K
24hNatus Vincere · $156.1K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. Team Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h44.49¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d44.49¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$196.9K
40¢
$173.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons$51.1K@ 55.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—3 minutes ago
BUYNatus Vincere$11.3K@ 45.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYNatus Vincere$112.5K@ 45.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYNatus Vincere$11.4K@ 44.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$11.0K@ 44.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$66.0K@ 44.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
29.5¢$157.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
47.0¢$2.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner
48.5¢$1.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner
42.5¢$413priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
49.5¢$252priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
49.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
39.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlNatus Vincere$214.3K
BUY VWAP 44.58¢·6 fills
0x1610…ae49Team Falcons$54.2K
BUY VWAP 55.11¢·2 fills
0xc9bf…81c0Natus Vincere$33.5K
BUY VWAP 44.54¢·17 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.