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Lyon Open: Jaime Faria vs Felix Balshaw

● quote 403 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $914.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $681.7KEvent: Lyon Open: Jaime Faria vs Felix Balshaw
0.1¢
Jaime Faria
99.9¢
Felix Balshaw
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets36Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:237 trades$207.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 429 min agoofficial metadata 406 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Felix Balshaw · $21.2K net·18 wallets·$58.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJaime Faria$11.9K@ 59¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$207.6K

18 verified profitable wallets: Felix Balshaw · $21.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 403 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 429 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 406 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jaime Faria and Felix Balshaw in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if Jaime Faria advances against Felix Balshaw. This market will resolve to 'Felix Balshaw' if Felix Balshaw advances against Jaime Faria. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Absing3 linked markets · $37 gross
Donkoo2 linked markets · $34 gross
MaxFomo2 linked markets · $33 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Felix Balshaw UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $48.9K → $4.9K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jaime Faria; negative values favor Felix Balshaw. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJaime Faria · $0
6hJaime Faria · $0
24hJaime Faria · $44.5K

Jaime Faria price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jaime Faria price. Felix Balshaw fills are converted to the complementary Jaime Faria probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h46.1¢▼ below by 46.0pp
VWAP 7d46.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jaime Faria price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$318
65¢
$3.4K
60¢
$28.1K
55¢
$38.6K
50¢
$11.9K
45¢
$30.3K
40¢
$35.3K
35¢
$30.0K
30¢
$20.4K
25¢
$961
20¢
$1.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7.3K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJaime Faria$10.0K@ 58.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYJaime Faria$11.9K@ 59.3¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KkunnJaime Faria$25.2K
BUY VWAP 42.6¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesFelix Balshaw$17.4K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·12 fills
robustmstJaime Faria$15.0K
BUY VWAP 54.6¢·2 fills
eokhoFelix Balshaw$14.8K
BUY VWAP 56.3¢·3 fills
0x076d…8d4cJaime Faria$12.6K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·4 fills
HomeRunHazardFelix Balshaw$11.3K
BUY VWAP 59.5¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.