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Lisbon: Tristan Boyer vs Elmer Moeller

● quote 334 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $137.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $357.4KEvent: Lisbon: Tristan Boyer vs Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Tristan Boyer
99.9¢
Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:56 trades$225.2K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 361 min agoofficial metadata 336 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elmer Moeller · $11.0K net·8 wallets·$11.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLElmer Moeller$71.0K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$225.2K

8 verified profitable wallets: Elmer Moeller · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 334 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 361 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 336 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tristan Boyer and Elmer Moeller in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tristan Boyer' if Tristan Boyer advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Tristan Boyer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Elmer Moeller@ 84.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Elmer Moeller7h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Elmer Moeller@ 58.0¢7h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Elmer Moeller UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $45.4K → $10.8K · 75s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tristan Boyer; negative values favor Elmer Moeller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTristan Boyer · $0
6hTristan Boyer · $0
24hTristan Boyer · $11.7K

Tristan Boyer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tristan Boyer price. Elmer Moeller fills are converted to the complementary Tristan Boyer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h21.5¢▼ below by 21.4pp
VWAP 7d21.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tristan Boyer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.6K
45¢
$35.9K
40¢
$30.1K
35¢
$30.4K
30¢
$5
25¢
$182
20¢
$12.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$30.4K
5¢
$20
0¢
← now
$84.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElmer Moeller$11.5K@ 99.9¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLElmer Moeller$71.0K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 86.8¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLElmer Moeller$11.6K@ 77.6¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 52.4¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 60.5¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 58.7¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 62.3¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 61.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$10.0K@ 59.2¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Boyer vs. Moeller: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$105priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Elmer Moeller (-1.5) vs Tristan Boyer (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tristan Boyer vs. Elmer Moeller: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boyer vs. Moeller: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Tristan Boyer vs Elmer Moeller
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstElmer Moeller$65.0K
BUY VWAP 59.3¢·8 fills
hurricanElmer Moeller$10.0K
BUY VWAP 86.8¢·1 fill
tiger105Elmer Moeller$10.0K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.