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Lyon Open, Qualification: Ugo Blanchet vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

● quote 157 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $52.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $127.7KEvent: Lyon Open, Qualification: Ugo Blanchet vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
2.0¢
Ugo Blanchet
99.9¢
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution22Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:65 trades$37.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 172 min agoofficial metadata 154 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · $5.0K net·12 wallets·$6.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUgo Blanchet$13.2K@ 71¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$11.1K
tracked
$37.3K

12 verified profitable wallets: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · $5.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 157 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 172 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 154 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ugo Blanchet and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Lyon Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ugo Blanchet' if Ugo Blanchet advances against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. This market will resolve to 'Nicolai Budkov Kjaer' if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer advances against Ugo Blanchet. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Ugo Blanchet DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $847 → $3.5K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ugo Blanchet; negative values favor Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUgo Blanchet · $0
6hUgo Blanchet · $11.1K
24hUgo Blanchet · $10.0K

Ugo Blanchet price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ugo Blanchet price. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer fills are converted to the complementary Ugo Blanchet probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h38.6¢▼ below by 36.6pp
VWAP 7d38.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ugo Blanchet price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$13.3K
65¢
$158
60¢
$60
55¢
$0
50¢
$12
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$4.6K
30¢
$7
25¢
$264
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$5.6K
5¢
$1.7K
0¢
← now
$6.5K

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUgo Blanchet$13.2K@ 71.4¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstUgo Blanchet$13.2K
BUY VWAP 71.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.