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UAE Tri-Nations ODIs: Afghanistan vs Bangladesh

● quote 96 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $27.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $133.7KEvent: UAE Tri-Nations ODIs: Afghanistan vs Bangladesh
100.0¢
Afghanistan
0.1¢
Bangladesh
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$72.4K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 144 min agoofficial metadata 96 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAfghanistan$25.7K@ 100¢·norrisfan

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$28.0K
tracked
$72.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Bangladesh · $748 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +3.6pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 96 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 144 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 96 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 05:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.espncricinfo.com/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the cricket match between Afghanistan and Bangladesh scheduled for October 21 2026 at 1:30 AM ET in UAE Tri-Nations ODIs. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Afghanistan@ 96.4¢6h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.7pp1h STALLED +0.4pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Afghanistan; negative values favor Bangladesh. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAfghanistan · $0
6hAfghanistan · $28.0K
24hAfghanistan · $47.2K

Afghanistan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Afghanistan price. Bangladesh fills are converted to the complementary Afghanistan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h91.0¢▲ above by 8.9pp
VWAP 7d91.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Afghanistan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$48.8K
90¢
$19
85¢
$11.5K
80¢
$2.3K
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$8.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAfghanistan$25.7K@ 99.8¢
norrisfan0xe72b…b0a0
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAfghanistan$19.5K@ 95.0¢
dpk-5010x519b…624e
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

norrisfanAfghanistan$25.7K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill
dpk-501Afghanistan$19.5K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.