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Hawks vs. Magic

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $893.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $368.4KEvent: Hawks vs. Magic
44.5¢
Hawks
55.5¢
Magic
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection54Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority82Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:164 trades$158.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 15s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Magic · $6.2K net·9 wallets·$34.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagic$56.1K@ 56¢·BreakTheBank

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Magic SETUP
What the tape says

Magic pressure: $85.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$85.3K
6h
−$124.1K
tracked
$158.6K

9 verified profitable wallets: Magic · $6.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 82

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Magic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks".

•If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 7:00PM ET: If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BreakTheBank2 linked markets · $88.6K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $19.7K gross
Herdonia7 linked markets · $14.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Magic@ 56.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Magic@ 55.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Magic@ 58.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hawks; negative values favor Magic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMagic · $85.3K
6hMagic · $124.1K
24hMagic · $105.4K

Hawks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hawks price. Magic fills are converted to the complementary Hawks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h44.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d44.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hawks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$54.7K
40¢
← now
$130.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMagic$56.1K@ 56.0¢
BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c
🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYMagic$31.6K@ 56.0¢
BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c
🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYMagic$27.5K@ 55.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Magic (-2.5)
49.5¢$60.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
45.5¢$40.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 235.5
46.5¢$24.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 236.5
43.5¢$23.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-16.5)
14.5¢$12.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 234.5
0.0¢$10.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 233.5
51.5¢$6.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5
61.0¢$11priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BreakTheBankMagic$87.7K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111Magic$27.5K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardMagic$16.3K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·10 fills
HerdoniaHawks$12.8K
BUY VWAP 43.9¢·18 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.