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Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 44 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $29.3KEvent: Warriors vs. Lakers
47.0¢
Lakers
53.0¢
Warriors
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly41Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$9.8K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lakers · $114 net·2 wallets·$114 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWarriors$4.0K@ 50¢·ropetard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$110
6h
−$6.2K
tracked
$9.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Lakers · $114 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Warriors".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 13 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ropetard3 linked markets · $34.1K gross
0x906f…88b42 linked markets · $13.5K gross
0x9e3e…f8824 linked markets · $3.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lakers; negative values favor Warriors. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLakers · $110
6hWarriors · $6.2K
24hWarriors · $6.2K

Lakers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lakers price. Warriors fills are converted to the complementary Lakers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.0¢
VWAP 24h47.4¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d47.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lakers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.0K
45¢
← now
$5.8K
40¢
$4
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.