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Spread: Commanders (-5.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $195.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $142.6KEvent: Eagles vs. Commanders

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

52.5¢
Commanders
47.5¢
Eagles
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$66.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 570 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCommanders$29.0K@ 54¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$66.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Eagles · $19.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 570 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 01:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Commanders" if the Commanders win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Eagles".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Eagles and Commanders, scheduled for November 1 at 8:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if the Commanders win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Eagles". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Commanders@ 55.0¢20h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Commanders; negative values favor Eagles. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCommanders · $0
6hCommanders · $0
24hCommanders · $6.8K

Commanders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Commanders price. Eagles fills are converted to the complementary Commanders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h53.88¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d53.81¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Commanders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$4
50¢
← now
$68.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCommanders$29.0K@ 54.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—about 20 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbc43…96d3Commanders$36.4K
BUY VWAP 53.79¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardEagles$19.3K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.