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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5

● quote just now
Sports→BaseballCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $338.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $122.8KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
51.5¢
Over
48.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$68.1K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$23.6K@ 47¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Under SETUP
What the tape says

Under pressure: $17.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.4K
6h
−$40.4K
tracked
$68.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Under · $11.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays combine to score 7 or more runs in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 7, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for October 12 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays combine to score 7 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 7, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $62.2K gross
0xbca1…c8aa2 linked markets · $4.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 47.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 48.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $17.4K
6hUnder · $40.4K
24hUnder · $64.0K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h52.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d52.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$68.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$18.4K@ 47.0¢
lalalalalalallalalalala0xe178…fe19
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUnder$23.6K@ 47.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
39.5¢$252.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
41.5¢$132.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
1st 5 Innings Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
42.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians Team Total: O/U 0.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingUnder$23.6K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
lalalalalalallalalalalaUnder$18.4K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardUnder$11.9K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.