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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 41s ago
Sports→BaseballCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $976.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $252.2KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
39.5¢
Cleveland Guardians
60.5¢
Tampa Bay Rays
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$144.3K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 108 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tampa Bay Rays · $9.6K net·2 wallets·$9.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays$83.5K@ 61¢·Pwaddler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$9.0K
tracked
$144.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Tampa Bay Rays · $9.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 108 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for October 12 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $62.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 61.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 61.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 60.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cleveland Guardians; negative values favor Tampa Bay Rays. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCleveland Guardians · $0
6hTampa Bay Rays · $9.0K
24hTampa Bay Rays · $144.1K

Cleveland Guardians price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cleveland Guardians price. Tampa Bay Rays fills are converted to the complementary Cleveland Guardians probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h39.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d39.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cleveland Guardians price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$48.2K
35¢
← now
$96.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays$83.5K@ 61.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays$10.5K@ 60.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays$25.6K@ 60.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
41.5¢$127.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
53.5¢$103.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PwaddlerTampa Bay Rays$83.7K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·2 fills
SDTradingTampa Bay Rays$38.5K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.