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Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

● quote 13s ago
Sports→BaseballCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $424.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $132.6KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
41.5¢
Tampa Bay Rays
58.5¢
Cleveland Guardians
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$53.6K tracked40% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays$32.2K@ 42¢·Jooboo123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Tampa Bay Rays pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.0K
6h
+$21.5K
tracked
$53.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Tampa Bay Rays · $18.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tampa Bay Rays or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for October 12 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $62.2K gross
0xbca1…c8aa2 linked markets · $4.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 42.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 42.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tampa Bay Rays; negative values favor Cleveland Guardians. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTampa Bay Rays · $2.0K
6hTampa Bay Rays · $21.5K
24hTampa Bay Rays · $53.6K

Tampa Bay Rays price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tampa Bay Rays price. Cleveland Guardians fills are converted to the complementary Tampa Bay Rays probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tampa Bay Rays price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$53.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays$18.0K@ 42.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays$32.2K@ 42.0¢
Jooboo1230xa3aa…d4ca
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
39.5¢$252.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
51.5¢$122.8Kpriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
1st 5 Innings Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
42.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the game go to extra innings?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians Team Total: O/U 0.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Jooboo123Tampa Bay Rays$32.2K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Tampa Bay Rays$18.0K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.