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Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)

● quote 7 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $465.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $655.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
0.1¢
Spirit
99.9¢
MOUZ
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$383.3K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 59%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 113 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $225.7K net·3 wallets(2🐋)·$225.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ$182.7K@ 67¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$261.7K
tracked
$383.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $225.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Since latest whale follow through: +32.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 7 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 113 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 23:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than MOUZ in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MOUZ".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between MOUZ and Spirit in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than MOUZ in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MOUZ". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 10, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $304.4K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $157.5K gross
0x076d…8d4c3 linked markets · $137.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY MOUZ@ 68.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 33.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 69.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +21.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY MOUZ@ 69.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: Spirit DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.3K → $0 · 63s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $0
6hMOUZ · $261.7K
24hMOUZ · $284.4K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h31.8¢▼ below by 31.7pp
VWAP 7d31.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$381.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$8
15¢
$4
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.2K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMOUZ$36.3K@ 70.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$10.0K@ 69.9¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$73.6K@ 69.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$182.7K@ 67.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYSpirit$22.1K@ 32.8¢
Noprajsk0x31e5…4879
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$22.5K@ 70.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563MOUZ$182.7K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
juice-fruitMOUZ$73.8K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·2 fills
NoprajskSpirit$45.9K
BUY VWAP 32.7¢·4 fills
0x076d…8d4cMOUZ$36.3K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462MOUZ$32.5K
BUY VWAP 69.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.