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Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs

● quote 9 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $1.8MOfficial 24h Vol: $3.9MEvent: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
99.9¢
MOUZ
1.0¢
Spirit
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly42Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 32 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:762 trades$1.6M tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $64.8K net·32 wallets(2🐋)·$413.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMOUZ$118.7K@ 100¢·fantasy7788

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Spirit pressure: $19.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.6K
6h
−$43.2K
tracked
$1.6M

32 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $64.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +54.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 9 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spirit or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 23:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Spirit.

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against MOUZ.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between MOUZ and Spirit in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 10, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $304.4K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $157.5K gross
0x076d…8d4c3 linked markets · $137.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY MOUZ1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY MOUZ@ 46.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
COUNTER FLOWBUY Spirit@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASESELL MOUZ3h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Spirit DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $895 → $40 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor MOUZ; negative values favor Spirit. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $19.6K
6hSpirit · $43.2K
24hMOUZ · $11.9K

MOUZ price VWAP

Volume-weighted MOUZ price. Spirit fills are converted to the complementary MOUZ probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h55.2¢▲ above by 44.7pp
VWAP 7d55.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

MOUZ price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$188.2K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$13.8K
70¢
$217.4K
65¢
$78.4K
60¢
$30.5K
55¢
$30.6K
50¢
$33.6K
45¢
$57.3K
40¢
$773.2K
35¢
$93.5K
30¢
$29.9K
25¢
$31.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$5.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMOUZ$118.7K@ 99.9¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLMOUZ$27.4K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLSpirit$10.5K@ 66.3¢
supr0x5593…2cd1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit$11.7K@ 57.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLMOUZ$11.3K@ 44.0¢
halanddd1230x2787…e0c4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$13.2K@ 71.5¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$45.8K@ 69.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$10.2K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$42.4K@ 74.0¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSpirit$18.9K@ 27.0¢
NeverLoseBet0x3990…3401
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$24.4K@ 73.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$26.1K@ 44.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$22.2K@ 44.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$51.6K@ 43.7¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$41.2K@ 43.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$18.3K@ 42.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$60.8K@ 42.0¢
qiu30x7f73…14f1
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$53.1K@ 42.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$17.2K@ 42.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYSpirit$59.0K@ 59.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYSpirit$12.4K@ 59.0¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYSpirit$65.9K@ 59.0¢
Gulvisa80xa1f4…9681
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYSpirit$19.0K@ 58.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$10.1K@ 42.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$37.8K@ 42.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CORGI8MOUZ$108.1K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·3 fills
0x076d…8d4cMOUZ$73.1K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·3 fills
Gulvisa8Spirit$65.9K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563MOUZ$61.1K
BUY VWAP 66.7¢·3 fills
qiu3MOUZ$60.8K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Spirit$59.0K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fSpirit$53.0K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·24 fills
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fMOUZ$51.7K
BUY VWAP 49.1¢·25 fills
fantasy7788MOUZ$51.6K
BUY VWAP 43.7¢·1 fill
0x9e3e…f882MOUZ$46.4K
BUY VWAP 73.9¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.