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UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $670.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $772.5KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
50.5¢
Melissa Gatto
49.5¢
Ernesta Kareckaite
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection65Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:145 trades$352.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Melissa Gatto · $17.6K net·13 wallets·$52.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMelissa Gatto$59.4K@ 54¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Melissa Gatto SETUP
What the tape says

Melissa Gatto pressure: $228.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$228.0K
6h
+$237.6K
tracked
$352.4K

13 verified profitable wallets: Melissa Gatto · $17.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 73

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Melissa Gatto or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Melissa Gatto@ 51.0¢7m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Melissa Gatto26m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Melissa Gatto26m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Melissa Gatto26m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Melissa Gatto DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $141 → $428 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Melissa Gatto; negative values favor Ernesta Kareckaite. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMelissa Gatto · $228.0K
6hMelissa Gatto · $237.6K
24hMelissa Gatto · $243.0K

Melissa Gatto price VWAP

Volume-weighted Melissa Gatto price. Ernesta Kareckaite fills are converted to the complementary Melissa Gatto probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h53.9¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d53.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Melissa Gatto price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
$18.3K
70¢
$6.2K
65¢
$11
60¢
$83
55¢
$18.4K
50¢
← now
$296.5K
45¢
$5.2K
40¢
$10
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.6K
25¢
$637
20¢
$9.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMelissa Gatto$21.4K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—12 minutes ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$59.4K@ 54.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$51.6K@ 54.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$53.4K@ 54.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMelissa Gatto$22.9K@ 53.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketMelissa Gatto$205.4K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Melissa Gatto$14.3K
BUY VWAP 53.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.