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Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Lucas Poullain vs Joel Schwaerzler

Sports→TennisSettlement: Joel SchwaerzlerLiquidity: $95.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $163.7KEvent: Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Lucas Poullain vs Joel Schwaerzler
0.0¢
Lucas Poullain payout
100.0¢
Joel Schwaerzler payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJoel Schwaerzler$33.2K@ 92¢·Luzzzer

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Joel Schwaerzler. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lucas Poullain and Joel Schwaerzler in the Mouilleron-Le-Captif, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lucas Poullain' if Lucas Poullain advances against Joel Schwaerzler. This market will resolve to 'Joel Schwaerzler' if Joel Schwaerzler advances against Lucas Poullain. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 7d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Joel Schwaerzler7d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Joel Schwaerzler@ 55.0¢7d ago
15m CONFIRMED +28.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lucas Poullain; negative values favor Joel Schwaerzler. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLucas Poullain · $16.1K
6hJoel Schwaerzler · $8.7K
24hJoel Schwaerzler · $8.7K

Lucas Poullain price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lucas Poullain price. Joel Schwaerzler fills are converted to the complementary Lucas Poullain probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h18.8¢▼ below by 18.8pp
VWAP 7d18.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lucas Poullain price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$12.9K
40¢
$12.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$2.5K
20¢
$4.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$50.1K
0¢
← now
$9.1K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJoel Schwaerzler$33.2K@ 92.1¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—7 days ago
BUYJoel Schwaerzler$10.0K@ 58.3¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.