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Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

● quote just now
Politics→Culture→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $44.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $202.8KEvent: Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
32.5¢
YES
67.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$95.2K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 138 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.4K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$60.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$26.6K@ 69¢·coali10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3.3K
tracked
$95.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 138 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-02-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris or Scott Kretzschmar with a felony sex crime between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

In a civil complaint filed in September 2026, a Cornell University student alleged that she was drugged and sexually assaulted in October 2024 by multiple members of the Chi Phi fraternity at the fraternity's house in Ithaca, New York. Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris and Scott Kretzschmar are the 7 individual defendants alleged in the September 2026 civil complaint to have participated in the alleged October 2024 sexual assault. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris or Scott Kretzschmar with a felony sex crime between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A felony sex crime refers to any offense classified as a felony and as a sex offense under the law of the charging jurisdiction, including any felony sex offense defined in Article 130 of the New York Penal Law. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 66.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 64.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 64.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $58 → $2.0K · 65s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $3.3K
24hNO · $5.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.5¢
VWAP 24h35.0¢▼ below by 2.5pp
VWAP 7d37.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.8K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$4.8K
40¢
$7.2K
35¢
$102.5K
30¢
← now
$43.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$10.8K@ 65.0¢
202606010xb36c…1077
🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLNO$26.6K@ 68.5¢
coali100x7bc1…8db4
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYNO$23.7K@ 60.9¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYYES$13.9K@ 35.7¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$19.6K@ 60.4¢
coali100x7bc1…8db4
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

coali10No$27.9K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·2 fills
aenews2No$23.7K
BUY VWAP 60.9¢·1 fill
aenews2Yes$13.9K
BUY VWAP 35.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.