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Columbus: Duncan Chan vs Denis Petak

● quote 20s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $146.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $227.0KEvent: Columbus: Duncan Chan vs Denis Petak
99.9¢
Duncan Chan
0.1¢
Denis Petak
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection43Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$64.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Duncan Chan · $5.9K net·5 wallets·$8.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDuncan Chan$22.0K@ 83¢·Antblack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Denis Petak pressure: $27.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$27.3K
6h
−$4.9K
tracked
$64.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: Duncan Chan · $5.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -24.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Denis Petak or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 16:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Duncan Chan and Denis Petak in the Columbus, USA, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 12:20PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Duncan Chan' if Duncan Chan advances against Denis Petak. This market will resolve to 'Denis Petak' if Denis Petak advances against Duncan Chan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Duncan Chan46m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Duncan Chan@ 75.0¢49m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Duncan Chan@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
Latest book event: Duncan Chan UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $157 → $610 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Duncan Chan; negative values favor Denis Petak. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDenis Petak · $27.3K
6hDenis Petak · $4.9K
24hDenis Petak · $4.9K

Duncan Chan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Duncan Chan price. Denis Petak fills are converted to the complementary Duncan Chan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h70.7¢▲ above by 29.2pp
VWAP 7d70.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Duncan Chan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$3.4K
85¢
$281
80¢
$30.1K
75¢
$4.4K
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$406
60¢
$304
55¢
$6.7K
50¢
$14.0K
45¢
$1.3K
40¢
$1.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDuncan Chan$22.0K@ 83.1¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackDuncan Chan$19.4K
BUY VWAP 53.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.