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Spread: LSU (-8.5)

● quote 24s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $310.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $242.9KEvent: Texas A&M vs. LSU
49.5¢
LSU
50.5¢
Texas A&M
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$119.6K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Texas A&M · $31.3K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$36.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLSU$53.7K@ 50¢·texaskid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Texas A&M pressure: $8.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.4K
6h
−$9.9K
tracked
$119.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: Texas A&M · $31.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Texas A&M or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texas A&M".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texas A&M". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $75.3K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $10.6K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $3.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Texas A&M@ 51.0¢17m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas A&M@ 51.0¢17m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY LSU@ 50.0¢29m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LSU; negative values favor Texas A&M. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTexas A&M · $8.4K
6hTexas A&M · $9.9K
24hTexas A&M · $8.8K

LSU price VWAP

Volume-weighted LSU price. Texas A&M fills are converted to the complementary LSU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h49.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d49.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LSU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$106.4K
45¢
← now
$32.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTexas A&M$33.9K@ 50.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYLSU$53.7K@ 50.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYTexas A&M$14.6K@ 52.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYTexas A&M$17.1K@ 49.8¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

texaskidLSU$53.7K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rTexas A&M$47.4K
BUY VWAP 51.2¢·6 fills
0x2c33…0563Texas A&M$33.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.