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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $85.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $297.6KEvent: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
2.9¢
Arizona Diamondbacks
97.0¢
San Diego Padres
1.7¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:94 trades$132.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 23s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Diego Padres · $11.6K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$22.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona Diamondbacks$29.0K@ 58¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

San Diego Padres pressure: $4.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.5K
6h
+$10.0K
tracked
$132.1K

9 verified profitable wallets: San Diego Padres · $11.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.7¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from San Diego Padres or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 19:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, scheduled for September 27 at 3:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY San Diego Padres@ 97.9¢1m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona Diamondbacks@ 59.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona Diamondbacks@ 57.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: San Diego Padres UP 10.5pp · near-book depth $865 → $774 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arizona Diamondbacks; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Diego Padres · $4.5K
6hArizona Diamondbacks · $10.0K
24hArizona Diamondbacks · $42.5K

Arizona Diamondbacks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arizona Diamondbacks price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Arizona Diamondbacks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.9¢
VWAP 24h47.6¢▼ below by 44.6pp
VWAP 7d47.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arizona Diamondbacks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.3K
55¢
$86.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$10.1K
40¢
$6.2K
35¢
$51
30¢
$3.9K
25¢
$2.8K
20¢
$5.6K
15¢
$1.2K
10¢
$12.2K
5¢
$1.9K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$12.2K@ 89.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—5 minutes ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$14.3K@ 42.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYArizona Diamondbacks$29.0K@ 58.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYArizona Diamondbacks$19.5K@ 55.9¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingArizona Diamondbacks$65.3K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·6 fills
Sassy-BucketSan Diego Padres$14.3K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563San Diego Padres$12.2K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.