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Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $50.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $187.7KEvent: Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
1.5¢
Conventus Stellarum
98.5¢
Xtreme Gaming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets14Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 96%💡 24 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:216 trades$159.4K trackedsource coverage 84%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Xtreme Gaming · $3.2K net·24 wallets·$23.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYConventus Stellarum$10.0K@ 51¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Xtreme Gaming pressure: $14.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$14.5K
6h
−$1.5K
tracked
$159.4K

24 verified profitable wallets: Xtreme Gaming · $3.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 96% · priority 48

Since latest large flow: -24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Xtreme Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Conventus Stellarum" if Conventus Stellarum win Game 2 against Xtreme Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 2 against Conventus Stellarum.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between Conventus Stellarum and Xtreme Gaming in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Conventus Stellarum" if Conventus Stellarum win Game 2 against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 2 against Conventus Stellarum. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $75.0K gross
PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR2 linked markets · $14.7K gross
0xf3ce…a57a2 linked markets · $14.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Conventus Stellarum@ 26.0¢15m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Xtreme Gaming UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $445 → $3.6K · 53s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Conventus Stellarum; negative values favor Xtreme Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hXtreme Gaming · $14.5K
6hXtreme Gaming · $1.5K
24hXtreme Gaming · $1.5K

Conventus Stellarum price VWAP

Volume-weighted Conventus Stellarum price. Xtreme Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Conventus Stellarum probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.5¢
VWAP 24h47.6¢▼ below by 46.1pp
VWAP 7d47.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Conventus Stellarum price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$18.8K
50¢
$94.5K
45¢
$13.7K
40¢
$5.4K
35¢
$3.8K
30¢
$7.3K
25¢
$7.2K
20¢
$2.2K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$1.9K
5¢
$3.1K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYConventus Stellarum$10.0K@ 51.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—37 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Conventus Stellarum$35.0K
BUY VWAP 51.1¢·24 fills
Sunshine.SmileXtreme Gaming$11.7K
BUY VWAP 48.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.