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Spread: BAL (-8.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $199.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $845.8KEvent: Saints vs. Ravens
49.5¢
BAL
50.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:37 trades$417.9K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:BAL · $19.4K net·4 wallets·$80.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBAL$110.6K@ 48¢·raybanman

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$1
6h
−$132.4K
tracked
$417.9K

4 verified profitable wallets: BAL · $19.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "BAL" if the BAL win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between NO and BAL, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "BAL" if the BAL win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $11.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL BAL@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
THESIS FLIPBUY NO@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor BAL; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBAL · $1
6hNO · $132.4K
24hNO · $158.2K

BAL price VWAP

Volume-weighted BAL price. NO fills are converted to the complementary BAL probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h49.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d49.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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BAL price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$210.9K
45¢
← now
$294.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$31.4K@ 51.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLBAL$110.6K@ 48.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$53.7K@ 50.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$34.8K@ 51.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$22.7K@ 50.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBAL$104.4K@ 51.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBAL$12.8K@ 50.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$24.1K@ 51.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

raybanmanNO$150.9K
BUY VWAP 50.5¢·5 fills
raybanmanBAL$117.2K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardBAL$38.9K
BUY VWAP 49.1¢·7 fills
HerdoniaNO$30.5K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·7 fills
0x3dfb…abafNO$24.1K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.