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Genoa 2: Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $44.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $122.9KEvent: Genoa 2: Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso
20.5¢
Matthew William Donald
79.5¢
Gianluca Cadenasso
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution55Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority37Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$26.1K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Gianluca Cadenasso · $91 net·4 wallets·$2.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatthew William Donald$2.6K@ 52¢·Understandable98

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Gianluca Cadenasso pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.0K
6h
−$11.0K
tracked
$26.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: Gianluca Cadenasso · $91 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 37

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Gianluca Cadenasso or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-28 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matthew William Donald and Gianluca Cadenasso in the Genoa 2, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matthew William Donald' if Matthew William Donald advances against Gianluca Cadenasso. This market will resolve to 'Gianluca Cadenasso' if Gianluca Cadenasso advances against Matthew William Donald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Matthew William Donald DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $91 → $38 · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matthew William Donald; negative values favor Gianluca Cadenasso. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGianluca Cadenasso · $2.0K
6hGianluca Cadenasso · $11.0K
24hGianluca Cadenasso · $11.0K

Matthew William Donald price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matthew William Donald price. Gianluca Cadenasso fills are converted to the complementary Matthew William Donald probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h48.5¢▼ below by 28.0pp
VWAP 7d48.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matthew William Donald price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$82
60¢
$144
55¢
$3.6K
50¢
$10.7K
45¢
$3.7K
40¢
$6.8K
35¢
$6
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.