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St. Tropez: Murphy Cassone vs Clement Tabur

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $10.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $386.3KEvent: St. Tropez: Murphy Cassone vs Clement Tabur
55.5¢
Murphy Cassone
44.5¢
Clement Tabur
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets50Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:112 trades$103.7K trackedsource coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Murphy Cassone · $7.0K net·8 wallets·$13.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYClement Tabur$4.2K@ 78¢·yesmate

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$669
6h
−$16.8K
tracked
$103.7K

8 verified profitable wallets: Murphy Cassone · $7.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-29 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Murphy Cassone and Clement Tabur in the St. Tropez, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Murphy Cassone' if Murphy Cassone advances against Clement Tabur. This market will resolve to 'Clement Tabur' if Clement Tabur advances against Murphy Cassone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Clement Tabur3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Clement Tabur@ 60.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: Murphy Cassone DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $4.8K → $3.6K · 69s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Murphy Cassone; negative values favor Clement Tabur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hClement Tabur · $669
6hClement Tabur · $16.8K
24hClement Tabur · $20.3K

Murphy Cassone price VWAP

Volume-weighted Murphy Cassone price. Clement Tabur fills are converted to the complementary Murphy Cassone probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current55.5¢
VWAP 24h47.6¢▲ above by 7.9pp
VWAP 7d47.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Murphy Cassone price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.7K
60¢
$9.0K
55¢
← now
$21.2K
50¢
$10.8K
45¢
$16.7K
40¢
$24.7K
35¢
$3.5K
30¢
$7.2K
25¢
$3.7K
20¢
$4.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseClement Tabur$25.5K
BUY VWAP 55.6¢·14 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.