Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

● quote 36s ago

Tech→Finance→Closes: about 1 yearLiquidity: $629.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

9.5¢

YES

90.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:33 trades$412.9K tracked21% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $105.0K net·6 wallets(4🐋)·$306.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$135.0K@ 90¢·davisb12

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: $56.2K net directional flow in 1h.

+$56.2K

−$87.3K

tracked

$412.9K

6 verified profitable wallets: NO · $105.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2028-01-01 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Car3 linked markets · $66.0K gross

dromedaryy3 linked markets · $63.5K gross

gambler9252 linked markets · $340 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 90.0¢2h ago

15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 86.0¢18h ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $56.2K

6hNO · $87.3K

24hYES · $14.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current9.5¢

VWAP 24h10.2¢▼ below by 0.7pp

VWAP 7d9.9¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

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