Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

● quote 1 min ago
Tech→Finance→Closes: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $285.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $143.3KEvent: Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
18.5¢
YES
81.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0direction0wallets12execution93priority0data 59%💡 4 smart
24h sample:15 trades$50.5K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 190 min agoofficial metadata 34s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $3.9K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$32.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$14.4K@ 16¢·dromedaryy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1.1K
tracked
$50.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $3.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 190 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2029-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Car3 linked markets · $66.0K gross
dromedaryy3 linked markets · $63.5K gross
gambler9252 linked markets · $340 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 80.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

1hYES · $0
6hYES · $1.1K
24hNO · $14.4K

YES price VWAP

Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h19.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d19.0¢
Largest observed holders

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$183
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$31.1K
15¢
← now
$19.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$11.3K@ 80.0¢
Ahpo0xcdb1…276c
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$14.4K@ 16.2¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—about 18 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CarNo$16.0K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·2 fills
dromedaryyYes$14.4K
BUY VWAP 16.2¢·1 fill
AhpoNo$11.3K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.