PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

● quote 16s ago
Tech→Finance→Closes: about 1 yearLiquidity: $101.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $92.0KEvent: OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
10.5¢
YES
89.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$23.3K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 770 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $28.8K net·4 wallets·$28.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$9.0K@ 90¢·Car

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$23.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $28.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 770 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $14.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.5¢
VWAP 24h10.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d9.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$18.8K
5¢
$17.6K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
9.5¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
18.5¢$143.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
0.3¢$78.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
0.3¢$77.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
45.5¢$73.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
8.5¢$73.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
64.0¢$72.8Kpriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
52.5¢$72.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CarNo$23.3K
BUY VWAP 91.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.