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SMU vs. Louisville

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $352.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.8MEvent: SMU vs. Louisville
43.5¢
SMU payout
56.5¢
Louisville payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Louisville · $35.1K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$273.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSMU$72.7K@ 44¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-19 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "SMU" if SMU win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Louisville" if Louisville win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between SMU and Louisville, scheduled for September 19 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "SMU" if SMU win the game. This market will resolve to "Louisville" if Louisville win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL SMU4d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY SMU4d ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY SMU@ 56.0¢4d ago
15m INVALIDATED -51.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGESELL SMU@ 55.0¢4d ago
15m CONFIRMED +49.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor SMU; negative values favor Louisville. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSMU · $3.5K
6hSMU · $26.6K
24hLouisville · $1.2K

SMU price VWAP

Volume-weighted SMU price. Louisville fills are converted to the complementary SMU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h38.4¢▲ above by 5.1pp
VWAP 7d38.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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SMU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.2K
50¢
$26.4K
45¢
$128.5K
40¢
← now
$229.8K
35¢
$245.2K
30¢
$48.0K
25¢
$40.6K
20¢
$18.4K
15¢
$3.5K
10¢
$4.7K
5¢
$19.4K
0¢
$4.6K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLouisville$10.9K@ 92.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSMU$13.4K@ 40.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSMU$59.5K@ 37.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSMU$53.1K@ 35.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—4 days ago
BUYLouisville$21.2K@ 73.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSMU$36.9K@ 46.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSMU$12.1K@ 45.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSMU$14.2K@ 44.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—4 days ago
BUYLouisville$49.9K@ 62.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—4 days ago
BUYLouisville$53.3K@ 57.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—4 days ago
BUYLouisville$14.3K@ 57.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—4 days ago
BUYLouisville$18.7K@ 56.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSMU$72.7K@ 44.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ethanazSMU$129.1K
BUY VWAP 40.5¢·5 fills
Sassy-BucketSMU$72.7K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
maz26Louisville$72.1K
BUY VWAP 56.7¢·4 fills
ferrariChampions2026Louisville$71.1K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026SMU$66.5K
BUY VWAP 35.9¢·2 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rLouisville$40.4K
BUY VWAP 66.9¢·10 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rSMU$30.8K
BUY VWAP 32.7¢·13 fills
RN1Louisville$28.9K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·11 fills
iDARKenjoyerLouisville$21.9K
BUY VWAP 65.7¢·5 fills
HomeRunHazardLouisville$21.7K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.