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Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Chun-Hsin Tseng

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $157.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $161.9KEvent: Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Chun-Hsin Tseng
100.0¢
Luca Castelnuovo
0.1¢
Chun-Hsin Tseng
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets91Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:49 trades$49.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chun-Hsin Tseng · $11.0K net·8 wallets·$12.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChun-Hsin Tseng$11.3K@ 97¢·hd777

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Chun-Hsin Tseng pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.0K
6h
−$45.0K
tracked
$49.6K

8 verified profitable wallets: Chun-Hsin Tseng · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chun-Hsin Tseng or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-15 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Chun-Hsin Tseng in the Shanghai, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Chun-Hsin Tseng. This market will resolve to 'Chun-Hsin Tseng' if Chun-Hsin Tseng advances against Luca Castelnuovo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Luca Castelnuovo UP 3.6pp · near-book depth $20.6K → $1.5K · 21s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luca Castelnuovo; negative values favor Chun-Hsin Tseng. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChun-Hsin Tseng · $2.0K
6hChun-Hsin Tseng · $45.0K
24hChun-Hsin Tseng · $45.0K

Luca Castelnuovo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luca Castelnuovo price. Chun-Hsin Tseng fills are converted to the complementary Luca Castelnuovo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h14.5¢▲ above by 85.4pp
VWAP 7d14.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luca Castelnuovo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$31
80¢
$2
75¢
$3.5K
70¢
$21
65¢
$559
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$138
30¢
$20
25¢
$296
20¢
$300
15¢
$6.9K
10¢
$2.3K
5¢
$39
0¢
$33.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChun-Hsin Tseng$11.3K@ 96.9¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777Chun-Hsin Tseng$33.8K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.