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US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

● quote 28s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $659.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
57.5¢
Frances Tiafoe
42.5¢
Alex Michelsen
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:91 trades$507.1K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 51s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Frances Tiafoe · $16.7K net·3 wallets·$31.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$204.7K@ 42¢·totoro3miyazaki

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alex Michelsen pressure: $89.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$89.1K
6h
−$222.1K
tracked
$507.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Frances Tiafoe · $16.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Michelsen or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-15 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Frances Tiafoe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Alex Michelsen@ 43.0¢37m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 59.0¢57m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Alex Michelsen@ 42.0¢57m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Michelsen@ 42.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Frances Tiafoe; negative values favor Alex Michelsen. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $89.1K
6hAlex Michelsen · $222.1K
24hAlex Michelsen · $200.0K

Frances Tiafoe price VWAP

Volume-weighted Frances Tiafoe price. Alex Michelsen fills are converted to the complementary Frances Tiafoe probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h58.4¢▼ below by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d58.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Frances Tiafoe price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$73.2K
55¢
← now
$443.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$16.6K@ 42.0¢0x6bfb…02c9🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$18.7K@ 42.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$65.3K@ 42.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$204.7K@ 41.9¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$20.0K@ 60.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$30.0K@ 60.0¢
martingaleking0x52f5…5e8a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$12.8K@ 59.0¢
martingaleking0x52f5…5e8a
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

totoro3miyazakiAlex Michelsen$290.4K
BUY VWAP 41.9¢·4 fills
martingalekingFrances Tiafoe$42.8K
BUY VWAP 59.7¢·2 fills
0x620b…d4adAlex Michelsen$23.7K
BUY VWAP 41.8¢·4 fills
0xf559…f462Frances Tiafoe$20.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
0x6bfb…02c9Alex Michelsen$16.6K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Frances Tiafoe$13.8K
BUY VWAP 57.7¢·3 fills
fastball67Alex Michelsen$11.4K
BUY VWAP 42.5¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.