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Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $43.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $66.1KEvent: LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
82.5¢
Invictus Gaming
17.5¢
LGD Gaming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution55Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%
24h sample:43 trades$17.4K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLGD Gaming$5.8K@ 58¢·PetsViljandist

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$118
6h
+$4.1K
tracked
$17.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-08 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming wins 2 or more games than LGD Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LGD Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Invictus Gaming and LGD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming wins 2 or more games than LGD Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LGD Gaming". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize2 linked markets · $296.9K gross
BrotherObama2 linked markets · $79.0K gross
0xe907…cff65 linked markets · $44.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: LGD Gaming DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $418 → $472 · 90s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Invictus Gaming; negative values favor LGD Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hInvictus Gaming · $118
6hInvictus Gaming · $4.1K
24hInvictus Gaming · $902

Invictus Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Invictus Gaming price. LGD Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Invictus Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current82.5¢
VWAP 24h43.1¢▲ above by 39.4pp
VWAP 7d43.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Invictus Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$109
80¢
← now
$0
75¢
$4
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$194
55¢
$100
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$26.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.