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Genoa: Lorenzo Sonego vs Francesco Passaro

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $653.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $353.7KEvent: Genoa: Lorenzo Sonego vs Francesco Passaro
0.1¢
Lorenzo Sonego
100.0¢
Francesco Passaro
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets87Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:54 trades$110.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesco Passaro · $16.3K net·7 wallets·$18.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesco Passaro$25.0K@ 43¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Francesco Passaro pressure: $9.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.7K
6h
−$43.1K
tracked
$110.9K

7 verified profitable wallets: Francesco Passaro · $16.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +63.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 63.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Francesco Passaro or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Francesco Passaro in the Genoa, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Francesco Passaro. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Francesco Passaro56m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Passaro@ 37.0¢59m ago
15m CONFIRMED +53.0pp
Latest book event: Francesco Passaro UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $545 → $12.5K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Sonego; negative values favor Francesco Passaro. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesco Passaro · $9.7K
6hFrancesco Passaro · $43.1K
24hFrancesco Passaro · $43.1K

Lorenzo Sonego price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Sonego price. Francesco Passaro fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Sonego probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h44.1¢▼ below by 44.0pp
VWAP 7d44.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Sonego price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.9K
75¢
$0
70¢
$7.4K
65¢
$3.9K
60¢
$112
55¢
$56.2K
50¢
$6.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$7.6K
10¢
$9.7K
5¢
$12.4K
0¢
← now
$4.7K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancesco Passaro$12.5K@ 42.5¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFrancesco Passaro$11.3K@ 42.4¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFrancesco Passaro$25.0K@ 42.8¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Francesco Passaro$48.8K
BUY VWAP 42.6¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardFrancesco Passaro$16.2K
BUY VWAP 75.8¢·6 fills
willlyouareLorenzo Sonego$12.4K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.