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UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $533.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $340.8KEvent: UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
28.5¢
Alonzo Menifield payout
71.5¢
Iwo Baraniewski payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Iwo Baraniewski · $26.0K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$29.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIwo Baraniewski$22.2K@ 74¢·fkcvffcjt

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alonzo Menifield" if Alonzo Menifield is officially declared the winner of the fight against Iwo Baraniewski at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Iwo Baraniewski" if Iwo Baraniewski is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Alonzo Menifield" if Alonzo Menifield is officially declared the winner of the fight against Iwo Baraniewski at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Iwo Baraniewski" if Iwo Baraniewski is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Iwo Baraniewski4d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Iwo Baraniewski@ 74.0¢4d ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Iwo Baraniewski@ 73.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alonzo Menifield; negative values favor Iwo Baraniewski. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIwo Baraniewski · $52.5K
6hIwo Baraniewski · $98.2K
24hIwo Baraniewski · $98.2K

Alonzo Menifield price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alonzo Menifield price. Iwo Baraniewski fills are converted to the complementary Alonzo Menifield probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.5¢
VWAP 24h39.5¢▼ below by 11.0pp
VWAP 7d38.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alonzo Menifield price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$20.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$206
40¢
$10.5K
35¢
$6.8K
30¢
$5.0K
25¢
← now
$89.8K
20¢
$4.3K
15¢
$976
10¢
$6.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlonzo Menifield$11.4K@ 99.9¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—4 days ago
BUYIwo Baraniewski$22.2K@ 74.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—4 days ago
BUYIwo Baraniewski$16.0K@ 72.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—4 days ago
BUYIwo Baraniewski$10.2K@ 72.0¢
ROI-Value0x689f…259c
🐋—4 days ago
BUYIwo Baraniewski$13.0K@ 70.3¢0x248e…0b3b🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

maz26Iwo Baraniewski$25.5K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·3 fills
fkcvffcjtIwo Baraniewski$22.2K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0x248e…0b3bIwo Baraniewski$13.0K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·1 fill
ROI-ValueIwo Baraniewski$10.2K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.