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Counter-Strike: fnatic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $25.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $249.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: fnatic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
63.5¢
fnatic
36.5¢
NIP
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$94.6K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NIP · $15.1K net·2 wallets·$15.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYfnatic$38.8K@ 45¢·Sunny24

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

fnatic pressure: $13.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.7K
6h
+$35.5K
tracked
$94.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: NIP · $15.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 22.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from fnatic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against NIP.

•This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against fnatic.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between fnatic and NIP in the Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against NIP. This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 6, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY fnatic33m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY fnatic@ 42.0¢42m ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp
Latest book event: fnatic DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $6.7K → $1.3K · 87s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor fnatic; negative values favor NIP. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hfnatic · $13.7K
6hfnatic · $35.5K
24hfnatic · $34.5K

fnatic price VWAP

Volume-weighted fnatic price. NIP fills are converted to the complementary fnatic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current63.5¢
VWAP 24h44.6¢▲ above by 18.9pp
VWAP 7d44.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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fnatic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$56
60¢
← now
$5
55¢
$70
50¢
$0
45¢
$16.3K
40¢
$75.7K
35¢
$2.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYfnatic$38.8K@ 44.8¢
Sunny240x2089…712e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYfnatic$14.4K@ 43.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sunny24fnatic$38.8K
BUY VWAP 44.8¢·1 fill
CORGI8fnatic$14.4K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
RN1NIP$14.1K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.