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Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $99.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $156.7KEvent: Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
100.0¢
Team Nemesis
0.1¢
Carstensz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$32.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Nemesis · $41 net·3 wallets·$59 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Nemesis$11.7K@ 100¢·hanbinlala

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Carstensz pressure: $3.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.5K
6h
−$17.1K
tracked
$32.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Team Nemesis · $41 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carstensz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 12:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win the match against Carstensz.

•This market will resolve to "Carstensz" if Carstensz win the match against Team Nemesis.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Nemesis and Carstensz in the EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Nemesis" if Team Nemesis win the match against Carstensz. This market will resolve to "Carstensz" if Carstensz win the match against Team Nemesis. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 5, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
hanbinlala3 linked markets · $47.4K gross
ohehe2 linked markets · $3.7K gross
Jimmyman1322 linked markets · $1.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Carstensz UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $175 → $701 · 78s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Nemesis; negative values favor Carstensz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarstensz · $3.5K
6hCarstensz · $17.1K
24hCarstensz · $17.1K

Team Nemesis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Nemesis price. Carstensz fills are converted to the complementary Team Nemesis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h88.3¢▲ above by 11.6pp
VWAP 7d88.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Nemesis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$20.2K
90¢
$34
85¢
$154
80¢
$0
75¢
$186
70¢
$5.4K
65¢
$3.2K
60¢
$1.1K
55¢
$1.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTeam Nemesis$11.7K@ 99.9¢
hanbinlala0x66b1…6b9d
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.