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US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

Sports→Settlement: Daniil MedvedevLiquidity: $285.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $597.9KEvent: US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech
100.0¢
Daniil Medvedev payout
0.0¢
Arthur Rinderknech payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $70.1K net·12 wallets(4🐋)·$172.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$37.0K@ 74¢·beachboy4

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Daniil Medvedev. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $48.7K gross
ethanaz2 linked markets · $39.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Rinderknech6d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Rinderknech@ 30.0¢6d ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -13.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 74.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 74.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Arthur Rinderknech. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Rinderknech · $7.2K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $82.7K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $105.1K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Arthur Rinderknech fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h74.6¢▲ above by 25.4pp
VWAP 7d74.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$12.2K
90¢
$5.2K
85¢
$3.0K
80¢
$2.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$222.3K
65¢
$12.6K
60¢
$431
55¢
$4
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDaniil Medvedev$11.3K@ 73.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—6 days ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.9K@ 73.0¢
TRCM0x42c9…9623
🐋—6 days ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.9K@ 73.0¢
flatbarrel0x6485…a265
🐋—6 days ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.9K@ 73.0¢
tradecraft0xde9f…d43c
🐋—6 days ago
BUYArthur Rinderknech$13.1K@ 28.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—6 days ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$37.0K@ 74.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—6 days ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$27.7K@ 73.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—6 days ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$26.8K@ 73.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Daniil Medvedev$64.7K
BUY VWAP 73.6¢·2 fills
FlaznorpDaniil Medvedev$31.2K
BUY VWAP 72.9¢·9 fills
ferrariChampions2026Arthur Rinderknech$27.4K
BUY VWAP 27.8¢·3 fills
AV23IUaDaniil Medvedev$26.8K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
flatbarrelDaniil Medvedev$12.8K
BUY VWAP 74.3¢·3 fills
TRCMDaniil Medvedev$10.9K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
tradecraftDaniil Medvedev$10.9K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.