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US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro

● quote 10s ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $132Official 24h Vol: $266.5KEvent: US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro
54.0¢
Jesper de Jong
46.0¢
Francesco Passaro
12.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution1Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$79.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 201 min agoofficial metadata 33s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesco Passaro · $13.6K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$19.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesco Passaro$17.0K@ 42¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$79.9K

10 verified profitable wallets: Francesco Passaro · $13.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
12.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 201 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 12.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Francesco Passaro in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jesper de Jong' if Jesper de Jong advances against Francesco Passaro. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Jesper de Jong. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Jesper de Jong7h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Jesper de Jong@ 56.0¢7h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp6h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Francesco Passaro7h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Passaro@ 41.0¢8h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp6h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
Latest book event: Francesco Passaro DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $21.6K → $12.1K · 19s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jesper de Jong; negative values favor Francesco Passaro. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJesper de Jong · $0
6hJesper de Jong · $1.5K
24hFrancesco Passaro · $7.6K

Jesper de Jong price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jesper de Jong price. Francesco Passaro fills are converted to the complementary Jesper de Jong probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.0¢
VWAP 24h55.7¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d55.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jesper de Jong price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$5.5K
60¢
$5.6K
55¢
$51.6K
50¢
← now
$3.6K
45¢
$8.9K
40¢
$2.2K
35¢
$1.8K
30¢
$678
25¢
$61
20¢
$10
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJesper de Jong$10.0K@ 56.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Passaro$17.0K@ 41.8¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Passaro$11.1K@ 43.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Jesper de Jong$18.8K
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·2 fills
NiNo999Francesco Passaro$17.0K
BUY VWAP 41.8¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Francesco Passaro$16.0K
BUY VWAP 40.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.