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US Open ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea

● quote 23s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $2.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $611.4KEvent: US Open ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea
22.0¢
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
78.0¢
Arthur Gea
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution60Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:283 trades$249.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 201 min agoofficial metadata 47s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Manuel Cerundolo · $47.3K net·16 wallets(2🐋)·$89.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Manuel Cerundolo$17.0K@ 73¢·Gambler661

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$3.3K
tracked
$249.0K

16 verified profitable wallets: Juan Manuel Cerundolo · $47.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 201 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-08 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Arthur Gea in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel Cerundolo' if Juan Manuel Cerundolo advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo@ 76.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -30.0pp6h INVALIDATED -55.0pp
Latest book event: Arthur Gea UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $17.8K → $63 · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Juan Manuel Cerundolo; negative values favor Arthur Gea. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJuan Manuel Cerundolo · $0
6hJuan Manuel Cerundolo · $3.3K
24hJuan Manuel Cerundolo · $37.0K

Juan Manuel Cerundolo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Juan Manuel Cerundolo price. Arthur Gea fills are converted to the complementary Juan Manuel Cerundolo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.0¢
VWAP 24h54.3¢▼ below by 32.3pp
VWAP 7d54.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Juan Manuel Cerundolo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$26.1K
70¢
$47.3K
65¢
$3.1K
60¢
$6.1K
55¢
$4.3K
50¢
$22.8K
45¢
$66.9K
40¢
$57.8K
35¢
$6.3K
30¢
$13.5K
25¢
$5
20¢
← now
$104
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Gea$13.5K@ 59.7¢
unbeatable10xac02…8570
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYJuan Manuel Cerundolo$15.0K@ 71.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYJuan Manuel Cerundolo$15.2K@ 73.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLJuan Manuel Cerundolo$10.7K@ 75.0¢
ehsantrade0xae5c…5df7
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYJuan Manuel Cerundolo$17.0K@ 73.0¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fkcvffcjtJuan Manuel Cerundolo$30.3K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·2 fills
Gambler661Juan Manuel Cerundolo$18.3K
BUY VWAP 71.9¢·2 fills
unbeatable1Arthur Gea$15.9K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·2 fills
alexdave888Juan Manuel Cerundolo$11.3K
BUY VWAP 37.9¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Juan Manuel Cerundolo$10.8K
BUY VWAP 41.6¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Arthur Gea$10.3K
BUY VWAP 51.6¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.