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US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa

● quote 36s ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $615Official 24h Vol: $309.9KEvent: US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa
15.0¢
Daria Kasatkina
85.0¢
Paula Badosa
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution44Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:77 trades$127.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 202 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Paula Badosa · $81.6K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$88.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPaula Badosa$75.8K@ 52¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$4.4K
tracked
$127.5K

9 verified profitable wallets: Paula Badosa · $81.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 202 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daria Kasatkina' if Daria Kasatkina advances against Paula Badosa. This market will resolve to 'Paula Badosa' if Paula Badosa advances against Daria Kasatkina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Paula Badosa@ 79.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Paula Badosa7h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Paula Badosa@ 63.0¢7h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp6h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
Latest book event: Daria Kasatkina DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $6.9K → $3.9K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daria Kasatkina; negative values favor Paula Badosa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaria Kasatkina · $0
6hPaula Badosa · $4.4K
24hPaula Badosa · $78.2K

Daria Kasatkina price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daria Kasatkina price. Paula Badosa fills are converted to the complementary Daria Kasatkina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.0¢
VWAP 24h45.5¢▼ below by 30.5pp
VWAP 7d45.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daria Kasatkina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.2K
50¢
$4.0K
45¢
$108.0K
40¢
$2.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$2.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$911
15¢
← now
$7.8K
10¢
$25
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPaula Badosa$75.8K@ 52.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Paula Badosa$75.8K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
eokhoDaria Kasatkina$10.7K
BUY VWAP 49.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.