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US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $220.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $423.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta
97.2¢
Jiri Lehecka
2.8¢
Pablo Carreno Busta
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly76Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:69 trades$198.7K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jiri Lehecka · $37.2K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$45.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJiri Lehecka$21.3K@ 82¢·11vsldfdsgfkjgos

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Jiri Lehecka pressure: $4.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.0K
6h
+$124.3K
tracked
$198.7K

7 verified profitable wallets: Jiri Lehecka · $37.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +17.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 17.4pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jiri Lehecka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jiri Lehecka and Pablo Carreno Busta in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Jiri Lehecka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Jiri Lehecka3h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Jiri Lehecka3h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Jiri Lehecka@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.2pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jiri Lehecka@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.2pp
Latest book event: Pablo Carreno Busta DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.0K → $959 · 49s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jiri Lehecka; negative values favor Pablo Carreno Busta. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJiri Lehecka · $4.0K
6hJiri Lehecka · $124.3K
24hJiri Lehecka · $155.5K

Jiri Lehecka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jiri Lehecka price. Pablo Carreno Busta fills are converted to the complementary Jiri Lehecka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.2¢
VWAP 24h82.9¢▲ above by 14.3pp
VWAP 7d82.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jiri Lehecka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.6K
90¢
$3.9K
85¢
$31.0K
80¢
$122.1K
75¢
$38.2K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJiri Lehecka$16.5K@ 83.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJiri Lehecka$14.6K@ 80.5¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJiri Lehecka$19.7K@ 82.9¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJiri Lehecka$17.2K@ 82.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJiri Lehecka$21.3K@ 81.6¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJiri Lehecka$15.0K@ 79.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

11vsldfdsgfkjgosJiri Lehecka$117.3K
BUY VWAP 82.1¢·10 fills
0b1feJiri Lehecka$26.1K
BUY VWAP 79.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.