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LoL: Fnatic vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

● quote 22s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $260.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: LoL: Fnatic vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
14.0¢
Fnatic
86.0¢
GIANTX
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection43Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 24 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:328 trades$392.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:GIANTX · $64.0K net·24 wallets(1🐋)·$101.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGIANTX$31.8K@ 86¢·bloodmaster

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

GIANTX pressure: $170.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$170.6K
6h
−$196.5K
tracked
$392.7K

24 verified profitable wallets: GIANTX · $64.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from GIANTX or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 21:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win the match against GIANTX.

•This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win the match against Fnatic.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Fnatic and GIANTX in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Fnatic" if Fnatic win the match against GIANTX. This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win the match against Fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $58.8K gross
minji3 linked markets · $44.3K gross
fkgggg2mouzfuria3 linked markets · $43.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY GIANTX@ 86.0¢20m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY GIANTX@ 86.0¢20m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY GIANTX@ 86.0¢20m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY GIANTX23m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Fnatic UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $709 → $5.3K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Fnatic; negative values favor GIANTX. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGIANTX · $170.6K
6hGIANTX · $196.5K
24hGIANTX · $180.6K

Fnatic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Fnatic price. GIANTX fills are converted to the complementary Fnatic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.0¢
VWAP 24h40.5¢▼ below by 26.5pp
VWAP 7d40.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Fnatic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$4.2K
65¢
$11.8K
60¢
$0
55¢
$40.7K
50¢
$144.5K
45¢
$3.8K
40¢
$24.4K
35¢
$18.5K
30¢
$13.3K
25¢
$21.2K
20¢
$40.6K
15¢
$35.4K
10¢
← now
$34.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYGIANTX$31.8K@ 85.9¢
bloodmaster0x58f8…dc70
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYGIANTX$11.9K@ 83.0¢
bloodmaster0x58f8…dc70
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYGIANTX$13.5K@ 77.0¢
bloodmaster0x58f8…dc70
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYGIANTX$10.0K@ 46.5¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYGIANTX$15.0K@ 45.5¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bloodmasterGIANTX$57.2K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·3 fills
0xf201…527eGIANTX$39.2K
BUY VWAP 53.4¢·8 fills
BrotherObamaGIANTX$25.0K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·2 fills
0xd570…e4f8Fnatic$21.1K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·6 fills
trgparkingGIANTX$16.7K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·3 fills
minjiGIANTX$16.2K
BUY VWAP 62.9¢·8 fills
Sunshine.SmileGIANTX$12.8K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·4 fills
xytestGIANTX$11.4K
BUY VWAP 66.8¢·5 fills
fkgggg2mouzfuriaFnatic$10.7K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.