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US Open ATP: Sho Shimabukuro vs Arthur Rinderknech

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $234.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $386.5KEvent: US Open ATP: Sho Shimabukuro vs Arthur Rinderknech
2.7¢
Sho Shimabukuro
97.3¢
Arthur Rinderknech
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:84 trades$207.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Rinderknech · $184.9K net·7 wallets(2🐋)·$190.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Rinderknech$65.9K@ 81¢·beachboy4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$378
6h
−$173.2K
tracked
$207.2K

7 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Rinderknech · $184.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +17.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 17.4pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sho Shimabukuro and Arthur Rinderknech in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sho Shimabukuro' if Sho Shimabukuro advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Sho Shimabukuro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Arthur Rinderknech@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Arthur Rinderknech@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Rinderknech@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Rinderknech@ 76.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
Latest book event: Arthur Rinderknech DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $73.1K → $43.0K · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sho Shimabukuro; negative values favor Arthur Rinderknech. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Rinderknech · $378
6hArthur Rinderknech · $173.2K
24hArthur Rinderknech · $192.4K

Sho Shimabukuro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sho Shimabukuro price. Arthur Rinderknech fills are converted to the complementary Sho Shimabukuro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.7¢
VWAP 24h21.6¢▼ below by 18.9pp
VWAP 7d21.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sho Shimabukuro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$6.2K
35¢
$2.1K
30¢
$6
25¢
$29.1K
20¢
$90.3K
15¢
$83.5K
10¢
$414
5¢
$85
0¢
← now
$458

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Rinderknech$10.9K@ 81.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYArthur Rinderknech$65.9K@ 81.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYArthur Rinderknech$21.4K@ 78.7¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYArthur Rinderknech$19.5K@ 78.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYArthur Rinderknech$17.0K@ 75.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Arthur Rinderknech$166.0K
BUY VWAP 79.7¢·11 fills
ferrariChampions2026Arthur Rinderknech$19.8K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.