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US Open ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov

● quote 48s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $290.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $470.2KEvent: US Open ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov
0.1¢
Miomir Kecmanovic
100.0¢
Denis Shapovalov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:140 trades$182.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Denis Shapovalov · $6.9K net·9 wallets·$25.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiomir Kecmanovic$25.0K@ 45¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Denis Shapovalov pressure: $1.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.0K
6h
+$18.0K
tracked
$182.3K

9 verified profitable wallets: Denis Shapovalov · $6.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +60.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 60.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Denis Shapovalov or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Miomir Kecmanovic and Denis Shapovalov in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miomir Kecmanovic' if Miomir Kecmanovic advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Miomir Kecmanovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Miomir Kecmanovic49m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Miomir Kecmanovic@ 60.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +26.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Miomir Kecmanovic@ 67.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Miomir Kecmanovic@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h INVALIDATED -27.0pp
Latest book event: Miomir Kecmanovic DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $7.6K → $3.2K · 64s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Miomir Kecmanovic; negative values favor Denis Shapovalov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDenis Shapovalov · $1.0K
6hMiomir Kecmanovic · $18.0K
24hMiomir Kecmanovic · $13.4K

Miomir Kecmanovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Miomir Kecmanovic price. Denis Shapovalov fills are converted to the complementary Miomir Kecmanovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h45.1¢▼ below by 45.1pp
VWAP 7d45.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Miomir Kecmanovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$16.7K
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$13.1K
60¢
$13.3K
55¢
$30.3K
50¢
$1.0K
45¢
$1.5K
40¢
$38.0K
35¢
$11.9K
30¢
$5.4K
25¢
$24.4K
20¢
$6.4K
15¢
$4.1K
10¢
$2.7K
5¢
$8.4K
0¢
← now
$2.7K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMiomir Kecmanovic$11.3K@ 55.7¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMiomir Kecmanovic$16.7K@ 76.6¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMiomir Kecmanovic$10.6K@ 63.8¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMiomir Kecmanovic$25.0K@ 44.9¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

007theone1Miomir Kecmanovic$28.4K
BUY VWAP 71.5¢·3 fills
NiNo999Miomir Kecmanovic$25.0K
BUY VWAP 44.9¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardDenis Shapovalov$12.8K
BUY VWAP 78.2¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.