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US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego

● quote 57s ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $14.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $219.0KEvent: US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego
91.5¢
Alexander Zverev
8.5¢
Lorenzo Sonego
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution74Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$85.6K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 200 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alexander Zverev · $24.1K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$24.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexander Zverev$24.2K@ 91¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$24.0K
tracked
$85.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: Alexander Zverev · $24.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 200 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Sonego in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Lorenzo Sonego. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Alexander Zverev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Zverev@ 93.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Zverev@ 94.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Zverev; negative values favor Lorenzo Sonego. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexander Zverev · $0
6hAlexander Zverev · $24.0K
24hAlexander Zverev · $70.3K

Alexander Zverev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Zverev price. Lorenzo Sonego fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Zverev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current91.5¢
VWAP 24h92.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d93.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Zverev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$106.7K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlexander Zverev$24.2K@ 91.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAlexander Zverev$24.0K@ 94.0¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYAlexander Zverev$10.0K@ 94.0¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Cuco84Alexander Zverev$43.5K
BUY VWAP 93.9¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563Alexander Zverev$24.2K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.