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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds

Sports→Settlement: Cincinnati RedsLiquidity: $183.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $629.9KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
0.0¢
San Diego Padres payout
100.0¢
Cincinnati Reds payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Diego Padres · $29.9K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$52.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$146.0K@ 56¢·Supremeleader75

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Cincinnati Reds. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-08 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for September 1 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 57.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL San Diego Padres@ 55.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor San Diego Padres; negative values favor Cincinnati Reds. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCincinnati Reds · $8.8K
6hSan Diego Padres · $175.0K
24hSan Diego Padres · $222.4K

San Diego Padres price VWAP

Volume-weighted San Diego Padres price. Cincinnati Reds fills are converted to the complementary San Diego Padres probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h53.0¢▼ below by 53.0pp
VWAP 7d53.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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San Diego Padres price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$24
65¢
$11
60¢
$0
55¢
$286.3K
50¢
$1.9K
45¢
$9.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$12
20¢
$30
15¢
$1
10¢
$0
5¢
$10.5K
0¢
← now
$6.3K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$23.8K@ 56.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—3 days ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$146.0K@ 56.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$24.3K@ 56.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—4 days ago
SELLSan Diego Padres$12.8K@ 55.7¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$25.0K@ 57.0¢
coltsmildx0xeafc…e4c4
🐋—4 days ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$12.6K@ 56.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75San Diego Padres$160.3K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·3 fills
coltsmildxSan Diego Padres$25.0K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingSan Diego Padres$24.3K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026San Diego Padres$23.8K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardSan Diego Padres$15.4K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.