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Falcons vs. Saints

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $4.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.6MEvent: Falcons vs. Saints
47.5¢
Falcons
52.5¢
Saints
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:196 trades$765.7K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Falcons · $6.1K net·11 wallets(2🐋)·$321.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSaints$212.0K@ 53¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Saints pressure: $47.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$47.0K
6h
−$297.7K
tracked
$765.7K

11 verified profitable wallets: Falcons · $6.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest whale follow through: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Saints or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons".

•If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 5 at 8:15PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $343.5K gross
Tiger2002 linked markets · $202.2K gross
lalalalalalallalalalala4 linked markets · $123.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Saints@ 53.0¢39m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Saints@ 53.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Saints@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Falcons@ 48.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Falcons; negative values favor Saints. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSaints · $47.0K
6hSaints · $297.7K
24hSaints · $177.7K

Falcons price VWAP

Volume-weighted Falcons price. Saints fills are converted to the complementary Falcons probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h47.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d47.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Falcons price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$771.7K
40¢
$4.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSaints$40.0K@ 53.0¢
Mastermoney0xbe23…b587
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSaints$212.0K@ 53.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSaints$27.9K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYFalcons$87.1K@ 47.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYSaints$64.2K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYSaints$26.9K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYFalcons$19.0K@ 48.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYFalcons$84.9K@ 48.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYSaints$15.3K@ 53.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYFalcons$18.3K@ 47.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYFalcons$28.3K@ 47.0¢
lalalalalalallalalalala0xe178…fe19
🐋—about 24 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Saints (-1.5)
49.5¢$870.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Saints (-2.5)
46.5¢$460.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 48.5
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Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
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18.5¢$380.9Kpriority80Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketSaints$212.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
Kch-TempSaints$133.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·5 fills
Kch-TempFalcons$103.9K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills
Tiger200Falcons$87.1K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
MastermoneySaints$40.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
lalalalalalallalalalalaFalcons$28.3K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
liquiditycrisisFalcons$18.3K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
one8tyfiveSaints$15.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
maz26Saints$11.4K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.