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Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 48.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $266.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $146.0KEvent: Falcons vs. Saints
46.5¢
Over
53.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly22Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$64.8K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 47s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$28.0K@ 48¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$509
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$64.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Over · $28.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Falcons and Saints combine to score 49 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 49, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 5 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Falcons and Saints combine to score 49 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 49, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $343.5K gross
Tiger2002 linked markets · $202.2K gross
lalalalalalallalalalala4 linked markets · $123.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $509
6hOver · $1.5K
24hOver · $438

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h47.5¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d47.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$77.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$23.8K@ 53.0¢
lalalalalalallalalalala0xe178…fe19
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver$28.0K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Over$28.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
lalalalalalallalalalalaUnder$25.8K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.